Contribution to World economic growth by region between 2011-2021

The group of emerging countries which compose the EAGLEs and the Nest (our watch list of countries which could eventually become an EAGLE) is expected to create more than two thirds of total global growth in the next ten years.On the other hand, G7 contribution would be around 16 per cent.

  • China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Korea, Russia, Turkey, Mexico and Taiwan maintained their EAGLEs membership after BBVA Research updated its forecasts.Egypt became the first “fallen angel” entering the Nest group. Chile and Ukraine also joined this group, which means that there are now 15 economies in the waiting list to become an EAGLE.
  • Changes in the composition of the EAGLEs and the Nest highlight the advantages of using a dynamic approachto evaluate which are the key leading economies in the emerging world.
  • Macroeconomic vulnerabilities in the EAGLEs countries remain relatively limited,at least when compared with the developed world. However, the degree of vulnerability varies widely from country to country. The report offers a map of vulnerability by country.
  • The special topics of the Annual Report pertain to China growing net credit position with the rest of the world,the growing relevance of the Gulf as a bloc and the decreasing economic importance of Africa within EM.

Download: Emerging Markets Economic Outlook. Annual Report 2012

(c) Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. – 2012